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News and Information Article
SAN RAMON, Calif., Jan. 9 /-FirstCall/ -- Chevron Corp.
(NYSE: CVX) today issued its interim update for the fourth quarter of 2006.
Relative to record third quarter earnings, the company expects results in
the fourth quarter to be adversely affected by lower commodity prices,
lower Downstream margins and lower refinery utilization attributable to
planned maintenance and construction activities worldwide.
The interim update contains certain industry and company operating data
for the fourth quarter. The production volumes, realizations, margins, and
other identified items in the report are based on a portion of the quarter
and are not necessarily indicative of Chevrons quarterly results to be
reported on February 2, 2007 in the Fourth Quarter 2006 Earnings Press
Release. The reader should not place undue reliance on this data.
Unless noted otherwise, all commentary is based on two months of the
fourth quarter 2006 versus full third quarter 2006 results.
EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION
The table that follows includes information on production and price
indicators for crude oil and natural gas for specific markets. Actual
realizations may vary from indicative pricing due to quality and location
differentials and the effect of pricing lags. International results are driven
by actual liftings, which may differ from production due to the timing of
cargoes and other factors.
2005 2006
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 4Q
through through
Nov Dec 31
U.S. Upstream
Net Production:
Liquids MBD 444 453 463 464 468
Natural Gas MMCFD 1,638 1,782 1,832 1,846 1,788
BOE MBOED 717 750 768 772 766
Pricing:
Avg. WTI Spot Price $/Bbl 60.06 63.35 70.57 70.56 59.11 60.06
Avg. Midway Sunset
Posted Price $/Bbl 49.07 51.28 58.71 59.08 47.03 48.20
Nat. Gas-Henry Hub.
"Bid Week" Avg. $/MCF 12.99 8.99 6.81 6.58 5.66 6.56
Nat. Gas-CA Border
"Bid Week" Avg. $/MCF 10.30 7.77 5.65 6.09 5.32 5.82
Nat. Gas-Rocky Mountain
"Bid Week" Avg. $/MCF 9.56 7.17 5.26 5.31 4.20 4.67
Average Realizations:
Crude $/Bbl 52.87 54.99 62.30 63.98 52.26
Liquids $/Bbl 52.10 53.45 60.07 61.99 50.27
Natural Gas $/MCF 10.22 7.46 5.89 5.93 5.42
Exploration Expense $ MM, B/T 109 106 86 76 n/a n/a
International Upstream:
Liquids MBD 1,271 1,228 1,239 1,267 1,315
Other Produced
Volumes MBD 147 138 123 141 36
Total MBD 1,418 1,366 1,362 1,408 1,351
Natural Gas MMCFD 3,289 3,165 3,234 3,119 3,071
BOE - incl. Other
Produced Volumes MBOED 1,966 1,894 1,901 1,928 1,863
Pricing:
Avg. Brent Spot
Price $/Bbl 57.02 61.88 69.39 69.72 58.55 59.44
Average Realizations:
Liquids $/Bbl 50.26 55.13 62.24 61.90 50.85
Natural Gas $/MCF 3.50 3.78 3.82 3.66 3.73
Exploration Expense $MM, B/T 165 162 179 208 n/a n/a
U.S. liquids and natural gas production declined almost 1 percent from
the third quarter, largely due to planned project activity - particularly
in the Gulf of Mexico, which continued into December. Combined
international liquids and natural gas production volumes were down 3.4
percent versus the third quarter; effective with the fourth quarter
production volumes reflect the impact of the conversion to Empresas Mixtas
in Venezuela, which is estimated to reduce volumes on the order of 90,000
barrels per day.
U.S. crude realizations decreased by $11.72 per barrel - in line with
the decrease in WTI and California heavy crude prices. International
liquids realizations declined $11.05 per barrel, in line with the decrease
in Brent spot prices.
U.S. natural gas realizations declined $0.51 per thousand cubic feet -
less than a composite of bid-week price changes for Henry Hub, Rocky
Mountain and California border, due to the mix of production in the various
regions and spot sales.
REFINING AND MARKETING
The table that follows includes industry benchmark indicators for
refining and marketing margins. Actual margins realized by the company may
differ significantly due to location and product mix effects, planned and
unplanned shutdown activity and other company-specific and operational
factors.
2005 2006
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 4Q
through through
Nov Dec 31
Downstream
Market Indicators $/Bbl
Refining Margins
USWC - ANS 5-3-1-1 16.00 18.32 29.06 19.36 19.85 20.55
USGC LHD - Avg of
Mogas + Dist,
less Fuel Oil 30.96 25.56 37.04 34.10 26.79 27.58
Singapore - Dubai
3-1-1-1 5.79 4.21 8.77 4.07 2.14 1.96
N.W. Europe - Brent
3-1-1-1 2.79 0.12 1.65 (0.22) (1.18) (2.06)
Marketing Margins
U.S. West - LA Mogas
DTW to Spot 9.06 1.11 1.65 11.08 4.73 4.32
U.S. East - Houston
Mogas Rack to Spot 3.60 2.02 4.96 7.31 4.52 4.64
Asia-Pacific / Middle
East / Africa 4.59 4.16 3.27 4.42 6.26
United Kingdom 5.64 3.95 5.70 7.31 5.00
Latin America 5.47 6.21 5.28 5.92 5.74
Actual Volumes:
U.S. Refinery Input MBD 896 939 935 967 930
Intl Refinery Input MBD 1,040 1,082 1,063 1,055 936
U.S. Branded Mogas
Sales MBD 587 595 613 625 619
Footnote
Effective April 1, 2006, the company adopted a new accounting standard,
Emerging Issues Task Force (EITF) Issue No. 04-13, "Accounting for
Purchases and Sales of Inventory with the Same Counterparty" and
reported prospectively the net effect of buy/sell transactions that fall
within the scope of this statement on its Consolidated Statement of
Income as "Purchased crude oil and products." This accounting change has
had no effect on Chevrons reported net income but has resulted in a
reduction in reported "Sales and other operating revenues" and refined
products sales volumes.
U.S. refinery input volumes and conversion capacity utilization
decreased primarily due to planned downtime and a seasonal decline in the
production of asphalt volumes. During the quarter the Pascagoula refinery
underwent a 75-day planned shutdown of its Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC)
unit, during which time the announced FCC expansion was completed; the unit
returned to normal operations in mid-December. In addition, the El Segundo
refinery experienced major planned maintenance. Outside the U.S., refinery
input volumes were also lower largely due to sizeable planned maintenance
downtime at the Pembroke refinery.
The U.S. Gulf Coast light-heavy-differential marker fell significantly
- about $7.30 per barrel, or just over 20 percent. And while the U.S. West
Coast industry refining indicator improved slightly relative to the third
quarter, the company does not expect to benefit to the full extent
indicated given the mix of crudes run at the companys West Coast
refineries. Outside the U.S., benchmark refining margins also fell and
continued to trend downward in December.
Los Angeles mogas marketing margin indicators declined appreciably
(about $6.35 per barrel) and the Houston mogas indicator fell by roughly
$2.80 per barrel. For the first two months of the quarter, actual marketing
margins realized in the U.S. were lower than indicator margins based on
different product and location mix effects. Internationally, indicative
marketing margins were generally weaker, except in Asia.
CHEMICALS
2005 2006
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 4Q
through through
Nov Dec 31
Chemicals Source: CMAI Cents/lb
Ethylene Industry Cash
Margin 21.19 20.82 14.22 17.02 18.67 15.68
HDPE Industry Contract
Sales Margin 13.20 14.94 12.06 12.79 13.18 11.94
Styrene Industry Contract
Sales Margin 12.19 12.31 11.73 11.24 11.65 11.68
Footnote
Prices, economics and views expressed by CMAI are strictly the opinion
of CMAI and Purvin & Gertz and are based on information collected within
the public sector and on assessments by CMAI and Purvin & Gertz staff
utilizing reasonable care consistent with normal industry practice. CMAI
and Purvin & Gertz make no guarantee or warranty and assume no liability
as to their use.
In the Chemicals segment, industry indicator margins were mixed
relative to the third quarter.
ALL OTHER
Our standard guidance for net after-tax charges for corporate and other
activities, excluding the companys equity share of Dynegys results, is
between $160 million and $200 million. For the fourth quarter we expect
that actual results will be at or above the high end of that range. Due to
the potential for irregularly occurring accruals related to tax items,
pension settlements, and other corporate items, actual results may differ.
Cautionary Statement Relevant To Forward-Looking Information For The
Purpose Of "Safe Harbor" Provisions Of The Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act Of
1995
This Interim Performance Update contains forward-looking statements
that are based on managements current expectations, estimates and
projections. These statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties
and other factors. Words such as "anticipates," "expects," "intends,"
"plans," "targets," "projects," "believes," "seeks," "schedules,"
"estimates" and similar expressions are intended to identify such
forward-looking statements. Actual outcomes and results may differ
materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking
statements. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially are the effects on the companys earnings from changes in prices
of and demand for crude oil and natural gas; timing of exploration
expenses; potential failure to achieve expected production from existing
and future oil and gas development projects; potential disruption or
interruption of the companys production or manufacturing facilities due to
war, accidents, political events, civil unrest and severe weather; gains or
losses from asset dispositions or impairments; and foreign currency
movements compared with the U.S. dollar, and the factors set forth under
the heading "Risk Factors" on pages 31 and 32 of the companys 2005 Annual
Report on Form 10-K. Unless legally required, Chevron undertakes no
obligation to update publicly the information contained in this Interim
Performance summary.
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